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jpam-theory-building

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Use when building the conceptual frame of a Journal of Policy Analysis and Management (JPAM) manuscript — the theory of change / logic model linking the policy lever to outcomes, the mechanism, and the scope conditions that govern transfer to other settings. Sharpens the argument; it does not run estimation or design identification.

Journal-of-Policy-Analysis-and-Management-Skills/skills/jpam-theory-building/SKILL.md

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# Theory of Change & Mechanism (jpam-theory-building)

JPAM is empirical, but the best policy papers are not atheoretical. The "theory" here is a **theory of
change**: a transparent logic that says *why* the policy lever should move the outcome, *through what
mechanism*, *for whom*, and *under what conditions it would (or would not) transfer* to another
jurisdiction or scale. This frame is what turns a single estimate into evidence a policymaker elsewhere
can use, and it disciplines the cost-benefit and heterogeneity analysis downstream.

## When to trigger

- Specifying the logic model / theory of change before or alongside the design
- A reviewer asked "what's the mechanism?" or "why would this generalize?"
- Deciding which heterogeneity and mediation analyses are theory-driven (not fishing)
- Framing scope conditions for external validity and scale-up
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