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aejpol-theory-model
Use when an AEJ: Economic Policy manuscript needs a framework that maps reduced-form estimates into a welfare, cost-benefit, or distributional policy object — sufficient statistics, MVPF, optimal-policy, or a small applied model. Builds the estimate-to-welfare bridge and states its assumptions; it does not run the empirical estimation or write the prose.
AEJ-Economic-Policy-Skills/skills/aejpol-theory-model/SKILL.md
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# Theory / Welfare Model — Estimate-to-Policy Bridge (aejpol-theory-model)
## When to trigger
- You have a credible causal estimate but no framework to say what it means for welfare or policy
- A referee says the welfare claim is "hand-waved" or the "so what" is missing
- You need to convert an elasticity / treatment effect into a cost-benefit or optimal-policy statement
- A reviewer asks "what is the sufficient statistic, and does your estimate identify it?"
## The AEJ: Policy role of theory
At AEJ: Policy theory is usually **in service of the policy reading**, not the headline. Most papers do not need a full structural model; they need a transparent framework that turns a reduced-form estimate into a **welfare, cost-benefit, or distributional** object a policymaker can use. Pick the lightest framework that delivers the policy statement and make its assumptions explicit.
### Bridge paths (lightest first)