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demog-theory-building

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Use when building the argument of a Demography (PAA / Duke University Press) manuscript into a population-science contribution — whether the work is formal/mathematical demography, an explanatory account of fertility/mortality/migration, or a measurement/decomposition advance. Demography rewards a clear mechanism or a sharpened estimate over a bare correlation. Structures the argument; it does not run analyses.

Demography-Skills/skills/demog-theory-building/SKILL.md

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# Theory & Argument Building (demog-theory-building)

At Demography a result is not a contribution until it is attached to a **claim population science can
use** — a mechanism that explains a demographic process, a sharper estimate that revises the record,
or a formal result that unifies or clarifies. This skill turns findings into argument: explicit
mechanisms, scope conditions, and observable implications, in the idiom appropriate to your kind of
work.

## When to trigger

- The empirics are strong but the "so what / why" is thin
- A reviewer said the paper is "descriptive," "atheoretical," or "just a correlation"
- You need to state mechanisms, identifying assumptions, or scope conditions explicitly
- Formal demography: deciding what to model and what the model buys you
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