Individual skill
Thesis Development
Turns a vague sector interest into a written investment thesis with a falsifiable core claim, must-be-true conditions and kill criteria set in advance -- when you need a thesis diligence can disprove.
packs/private-equity/skills/thesis-development/SKILL.md
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- Last checked
- Nov 11, 2026
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- Sep 10, 2026
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- MIT
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# Thesis Development
## When to use
Use this skill before a market map exists and long before a target is named, when the partnership has an interest ("we like industrial services") but no written claim anyone can argue with. Use it also when a thesis has drifted into defending consecutive passes.
## What it does
Produces a short thesis document: sub-sector boundary, the core claim in falsifiable form, where in the EBITDA bridge the return is created, the why-now catalyst, must-be-true conditions with owners, kill criteria agreed in advance, and the entry multiple range supported. It is written to be attacked, not to survey a sector.
## Method
### Step 1 -- Draw the boundary before writing anything
