Individual skill
Customer Cohort Analysis
Produces a cohort retention memo -- vintage-level NRR, gross revenue retention, and curve shape rebuilt from raw billings -- when you need to test whether blended churn is masking a deteriorating recent cohort before it carries the seller's forecast.
packs/private-equity/skills/customer-cohort-analysis/SKILL.md
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- Last checked
- Nov 11, 2026
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- Repository last updated
- Sep 10, 2026
- License
- MIT
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# Customer Cohort Analysis
## When to use
Use this skill in the commercial workstream alongside commercial analysis, on any business with recurring or repeat revenue. Commercial analysis sizes the market and stress-tests the growth drivers; this skill tests whether the installed base behaves the way the model assumes. Run it before the returns model is locked: two points of terminal NRR compound straight into the exit EBITDA.
## What it does
Produces a cohort memo: a vintage triangle rebuilt from raw billings, retention split into logo, gross and net revenue components by vintage, an assessment of curve shape and terminal retention, and a reconciliation of that evidence to the revenue line in the seller's model.
## Method
### Step 1 -- Rebuild the triangle, do not accept it
