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Financial Scenario Modelling

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Build a structured LBO returns analysis with bear/base/bull scenarios, MOIC and IRR sensitivity to entry multiple and leverage, and covenant headroom assessment.

packs/private-equity/skills/financial-scenario-modelling/SKILL.md

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# Financial Scenario Modelling

## When to use

Use this skill when you need to build or stress-test the returns analysis for an LBO acquisition. It is most useful in three situations: (1) ahead of an indicative bid, when you need to establish the range of supportable entry prices; (2) ahead of a final bid, when you need to refine the model with updated diligence data; or (3) ahead of the IC memo, when you need to present returns under clearly defined scenarios with transparent assumptions. This skill structures the logic and the sensitivity analysis -- it does not replace a live Excel model, but it defines what that model must contain and what assumptions to test.

## What it does

Produces: (1) a structured LBO model logic description (sources and uses, capital structure, operating assumptions, exit assumptions); (2) bear/base/bull scenario assumptions clearly differentiated; (3) a returns sensitivity table described in prose (MOIC and IRR vs entry multiple and exit multiple, and vs leverage and interest rate); and (4) a covenant headroom analysis and downside protection assessment.

## Method

### Step 1 -- Sources and uses of funds
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