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scenario-analysis

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Builds a coherent set of base, upside, and downside scenarios on the few key drivers, with value and decision implications, when an outcome depends on a small number of uncertainties.

packs/investment-banking/skills/scenario-analysis/SKILL.md

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# Scenario Analysis Agent

## When to use
Use this agent when the outcome depends on a few uncertain drivers: entering a market whose growth is unclear, pricing a deal where volume and margin could swing widely, or presenting a recommendation whose merit turns on how a small set of assumptions resolve. It is for full alternative worlds, not single-variable sensitivity. Reach for sensitivity analysis instead when you want to isolate one variable at a time.

## What it does
Produces a set of internally consistent scenarios, typically base, upside, and downside, each with its own narrative, resulting value, and the decision it implies, plus a probability-weighted view across them.

## Method
1. Identify the few drivers that actually move the outcome.
   - Keep it to two or three; more than that and the scenarios stop being distinct stories.
   - Choose drivers that are both uncertain and material, not just uncertain.

2. Anchor the base case first.
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