Individual skill

statistical-modeling

Build statistical models properly — choosing models, checking assumptions, quantifying uncertainty, and avoiding common inferential traps. Use when moving beyond descriptives to inference or prediction with statistics.

skills/statistical-modeling/SKILL.md

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# Statistical Modeling

Statistical models turn data into quantified claims: effects with uncertainty, predictions with 
intervals. The craft is choosing the right model, checking that its assumptions hold, and reporting 
honestly — including what the model can't tell you.

## Overview

Model selection follows the question and the data: continuous outcomes → regression family; 
counts → Poisson/negative binomial; binary → logistic; hierarchical structure → mixed models; 
time dependence → time series. Every model makes assumptions — check them with diagnostics, not 
faith. Report estimates with uncertainty (intervals, not just points), and distinguish what the 
data shows from what you wish it showed.