Individual skill

mean-reversion

Mean-reversion strategy tools including Hurst exponent, half-life estimation, z-score signals, ADF testing, and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck modeling

skills/mean-reversion/SKILL.md

Read pinned source

Source commit 981e1d736cdc02bdc1c55c74ec9224e956414706

What was checked

Matches the observed repository HEAD: Yes
Scanner rules are current: Yes
Repository scan complete: No
Skill scan complete: No
Observed behavior: Network or broad shell
Last checked: Nov 10, 2026

These are observations at the recorded commit, not a guarantee of safety. Review the source before running it.

Install this skill

Choose an agent in your Stack or copy a command below. Commands fetch the pinned commit and copy only this skill directory. Existing destinations are refused. Copying a command does not install anything.

An install command is unavailable: current rules, complete repository and skill scans, an eligible behavior level and a permitted license are required.

Repository context

Repository stars (not skill ratings): 521
Repository last updated: Sep 3, 2026
License: MIT

Observed agent integration: No specific integration evidence. Standard SKILL.md installation does not imply verified compatibility.

testing Derived category

Files and excerpt

File metadata and permitted, redacted excerpts come from the recorded scan. Source links are pinned to that commit.

Browse files

SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
SKILL.mdcore · 9,955 bytes
references/statistical_tests.mddoc · 7,934 bytes
references/strategy_design.mddoc · 8,261 bytes
scripts/mean_reversion_test.pyruns · 24,541 bytes
scripts/pairs_scanner.pyruns · 17,301 bytes

Read excerpt


# Mean Reversion

Mean reversion is the statistical tendency for prices, spreads, or other financial variables to return toward a long-run average after deviating from it. A mean-reverting series overshoots its mean, then corrects back -- creating predictable oscillations that can be traded.

## When Mean Reversion Works

- **Ranging markets**: Sideways price action with clear support/resistance
- **Pairs spreads**: Spread between cointegrated assets reverts to equilibrium
- **Oversold/overbought extremes**: RSI, Bollinger Band, or z-score extremes in stationary series
- **Funding rate arbitrage**: Perpetual funding rates revert to baseline
- **Stablecoin depegs**: Classic mean-reversion opportunity (peg = known mean)
- **Post-dump recovery**: Brief mean-reversion windows after initial PumpFun dumps

## When Mean Reversion Fails