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kalshi-weather-markets

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Daily temperature high/low bracket and threshold contracts on Kalshi — contract structure, forecast→P(YES) map, settlement rules, cross-venue divergences, and weather-specific pitfalls

skills/kalshi-weather-markets/SKILL.md

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# Kalshi Weather Markets — Daily Temperature High/Low

Kalshi lists daily high and low temperature options for ~20 US cities as binary contracts that settle YES ($1.00) or NO ($0.00). This skill covers the market structure, the forecast-to-probability map, exact settlement mechanics, and hard-won pitfalls. It builds on the exchange layer — for Kalshi API mechanics (host, auth, orders, order book, candlesticks) see the `kalshi-api` skill; for strategy, sizing, and backtesting see `prediction-market-strategy`.

## Contract Types

### Brackets — `B<center>`

A bracket ticker `B<center>` is a **2°F-wide, both-ends-inclusive** window.

- `B74.5` covers the **two integers {74, 75}°F**.
- YES iff the settled temperature is exactly 74 **or** 75.
- Brackets in one event are mutually exclusive and (with two open tail markets) collectively exhaustive.
- Their YES prices sum to the **overround** (fair = 1.0; > 1.0 = aggregate overpricing).
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