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prediction-market-live-ops

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Use when building, backtesting, operating, or scaling automated trading on prediction markets (Kalshi or similar) — evidence-gated methodology, live-execution safety rails, and falsification protocols distilled from a real live-money campaign

skills/prediction-market-live-ops/SKILL.md

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Sep 3, 2026
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# Prediction-Market Trading Doctrine

Hard-won operational knowledge from a live Kalshi campaign (Aug–Sep 2026:
crypto/commodity maker ladders, regime tilts, tennis dust vacuum — all
falsified honestly, infrastructure open-sourced). Reference implementation: https://github.com/agiprolabs/kalshi-stack.
Complements `prediction-market-strategy` (edge selection/sizing) — this skill
covers the OPERATIONAL side: validating, executing, and killing strategies
against a live venue without losing more than the lesson costs.

## The prime directive

Every strategy decision is evidence-gated: backtest → paper → live micro-probe
→ ratchet. Each stage has a PRE-DECLARED kill condition with correctly
calibrated probability math, written down BEFORE the data arrives. When a
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