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unlock-monitor

Token unlock and vesting tracker - quantify supply pressure via absorption ratio, classify cliff vs linear, and deliver one-line market reads

skills/unlock-monitor/SKILL.md

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Nov 7, 2026
License
MIT

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<!-- autoresearch: variation B — sharper output via Absorption Ratio (unlock $ / avg daily volume), Cliff vs Linear classification, and a one-line market-read verdict per unlock. Replaces qualitative HIGH/MED/LOW tiers with quantitative liquidity-strain thresholds backed by Keyrock's 16k-unlock study. Folds in source-status observability (from C) and CoinGecko volume enrichment (from A) as cheap wins. -->

Read memory/MEMORY.md for context on market positions and active narratives.
Read the last 7 days of memory/logs/ to dedup against any unlock already covered.
Read `memory/state/unlock-monitor-seen.json` if present — a list of `${ticker}:${unlock_date}` keys already shipped. Skip exact matches; if file is absent, treat as empty.

## Core thesis

The original skill ranked unlocks by **% of circulating supply**. That's a weak proxy. The right metric is **Absorption Ratio = unlock_dollar_value / 7-day avg daily volume**. Keyrock's analysis of 16k+ unlocks shows that ratios above ~2.4× consistently strain liquidity and produce measurable price drawdown. Below ~0.5× the market typically yawns. This skill ranks by absorption ratio first, supply % second, and folds in cliff-vs-linear structure plus pre-unlock price action to produce a per-event verdict.

## Steps

### 1. Gather candidate unlocks