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launch-tier-planner

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Use when the user asks to "plan my launch tier", "how big should this launch be", or "build a launch risk register with kill criteria"; produces a tier decision (Tier 1 flagship all-channel / Tier 2 targeted / Tier 3 changelog-level), a launch-type declaration (new-product / feature / relaunch / partnership with co-marketing split), an effort calibration matrix (tier to channel intensity and asset scope), D0/W1/M1 KPI targets (labeled Estimated), a risk register (likelihood x blast-radius, owners, mitigations, kill criteria / rollback thresholds), and a T-8w to T+4w timeline skeleton. Not for picking the launch date or window — use launch-window-planner; not for creator-channel launch campaigns — use campaign-planner. 发布分级/发布类型/风险登记册/kill criteria

launch/research/launch-tier-planner/SKILL.md

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Nov 12, 2026
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Apache-2.0

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# Launch Tier Planner

Decides how big a launch is and what kind it is — the tier (Tier 1 flagship all-channel / Tier 2 targeted / Tier 3 changelog-level), the type (new-product / feature / relaunch / partnership), the effort that tier justifies, the KPI targets declared before launch, and the risk register with kill criteria that the day-of runbook inherits. It sits in the Research phase of the [RAMP loop](../../../references/ramp-benchmark.md) and feeds the RAMP `R` sub-items *launch tier & type declared with effort calibrated*, *risk register exists (likelihood × blast-radius, owners, kill criteria / rollback thresholds)*, and *launch KPI targets (D0/W1/M1) declared before launch*. Sizing the moment correctly is what keeps a changelog entry from burning a Tier-1 audience and a flagship from shipping with a Tier-3 kit.

**Scope guard**: this skill sizes the launch and registers its risks only. It does **not** pick the date or window (that is [launch-window-planner](../launch-window-planner/SKILL.md)), build the positioning canvas (that is [positioning-mapper](../positioning-mapper/SKILL.md)), run a creator-channel launch campaign (launch requests that mention creators route to [campaign-planner](../../../influencer/target/campaign-planner/SKILL.md)), compute the RAMP profile result or run the RAMP vetoes ([launch-readiness-auditor](../../mobilize/launch-readiness-auditor/SKILL.md)), or write stage/date/tier facts to `memory/launch-registry/` directly ([launch-registry](../../../protocol/launch-registry/SKILL.md) is the sole writer — this skill submits candidates). It works one lever — sizing — and hands off.

## Quick Start

```
How big should the launch of [product / feature] be? Audience: [who is affected]. Revenue link: [direct / indirect / none].
```

```
Declare tier and type for [launch], build the risk register with kill criteria, and sketch the T-8w to T+4w timeline.
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