Individual skill
risk-distribution-fitter
Probability distribution fitting skill for calibrating uncertainty models from historical data or expert judgment
library/specializations/domains/business/decision-intelligence/skills/risk-distribution-fitter/SKILL.md
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- Last checked
- Nov 9, 2026
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- License
- MIT
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# Risk Distribution Fitter
## Overview
The Risk Distribution Fitter skill provides capabilities for calibrating probability distributions from historical data or expert judgment. It supports both data-driven fitting using statistical methods and expert elicitation protocols for subjective probability assessment.
## Capabilities
- Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE)
- Method of moments estimation
- Bayesian parameter estimation
- Goodness-of-fit testing (KS, AD, Chi-square)
- Distribution comparison and selection
- Expert elicitation protocol support (3-point, 5-point)