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muxuuu/serenity-skill

Research technology and advanced-manufacturing investments using Serenity-inspired supply-chain bottleneck analysis. Use for theme scans, company thesis challenges, candidate comparisons, or learning this method. Prioritize A-shares unless another market is requested. Return research priorities, dat

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How it works

serenity-skill

When your agent uses it

Research technology and advanced-manufacturing investments using Serenity-inspired supply-chain bottleneck analysis. Use for theme scans, company thesis challenges, candidate comparisons, or learning this method. Prioritize A-shares unless another market is requested. Return research priorities, dated evidence, profit implications, and conditions that would change the judgment.

What it loads into context

Frontmatter

124 tokens

Always available to the agent

SKILL.md

1,379 tokens

When the skill is activated

Reference documents

15,530 tokens

Loaded on request

Token counts are estimates. Scripts run separately; they are not counted as reference context.

The playbook

  1. Choose the research task
  2. Work from current evidence
  3. Follow the investment logic
  4. Finish with a usable judgment
  5. Answer in the user's language
  6. Examples

Scripts executed separately

  • scripts/validate_skill.py

Files

  • .gitignoreasset41 bytes
  • CHANGELOG.mddoc1,159 bytes
  • CONTRIBUTING.mddoc1,360 bytes
  • LICENSEasset1,061 bytes
  • README.en.mddoc8,227 bytes
  • README.mddoc11,878 bytes
  • SKILL.mdcore7,485 bytes
  • SKILL.mdcore7,485 bytes
  • SKILL.mdcore7,485 bytes
  • SKILL.mdcore7,485 bytes
  • agents/openai.yamlasset416 bytes
  • assets/research-prompt-pack.mddoc1,862 bytes
  • assets/thesis-template.mddoc1,404 bytes
  • evals/test-cases.mddoc2,241 bytes
  • examples/a-share-ai-semiconductor-demo.mddoc7,817 bytes
  • examples/cpo-company-challenge.mddoc5,880 bytes
  • examples/demo-conversation.mddoc1,095 bytes
  • references/deep-research-workflow.mddoc5,303 bytes
  • references/evidence-ladder.mddoc4,339 bytes
  • references/market-source-playbook.mddoc3,752 bytes
  • references/output-style-and-language.mddoc2,098 bytes
  • references/public-profile-and-evaluation.mddoc2,046 bytes
  • references/research-sources.mddoc924 bytes
  • references/risk-and-compliance.mddoc2,413 bytes
  • references/serenity-dialogue-protocol.mddoc2,201 bytes
  • scripts/validate_skill.pyruns1,963 bytes
Read SKILL.md

# Serenity.skill

Use the Serenity-inspired research path: start from a technology buildout, trace the system and its hard-to-expand inputs, then investigate which companies can turn that constraint into earnings. Explain the result like a direct research partner.

This is an independent interpretation of public research material, not an official Serenity product. See [method sources](references/public-profile-and-evaluation.md) when attribution or the method's origin matters.

## Choose the research task

- **Theme scan:** compare supply-chain layers, investigate companies across the plausible layers, and rank what deserves further research. Read [the research workflow](references/deep-research-workflow.md) and [evidence rules](references/evidence-ladder.md) before the scan.
- **Company challenge:** translate a label such as “CPO core supplier” into specific claims and test them against current disclosures. Read the same workflow and evidence rules.
- **Candidate comparison:** compare the supplied companies on business position, earnings exposure, evidence, valuation pressure, and failure conditions, using a comparable reporting period.
- **Conversation or learning:** respond to the current question at the requested depth. For guided practice, read [the dialogue protocol](references/serenity-dialogue-protocol.md) and ask one focused question at a time.

Default to A-share technology and advanced manufacturing when the user leaves the scope open. Respect an explicitly requested market or industry. Use global customers, suppliers, and competing technologies when they help explain the A-share business.
View the complete source on GitHub

Skills included

  • serenity-skill

Repository facts

License
MIT
Created
May 4, 2026
Last pushed
Oct 11, 2026
Forks
635
Open issues
1
Project activity
Active

Rank over the last 12 weeks

Now #306 · best #239 · down 35 in 30 days

  1. #298 on Oct 29
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  3. #301 from Oct 31 to Nov 1
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  6. #306 since Nov 4
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  1. #234 on Aug 2
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Before you install

Local scripts

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.gitignore

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README.en.md

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    <a href="https://olud.ai/project/muxuuu-serenity-skill.html"><img src="https://olud.ai/badge.php?tool=muxuuu-serenity-skill" alt="olud.ai directory rank"></a>
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    Serenity.skill turns the supply-chain research patterns observed in public [Serenity / @aleabitoreddit](https://x.com/aleabitoreddit) material into a workflow for ordinary investment research. Start with a technology theme, map the system a
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    git clone https://github.com/muxuuu/serenity-skill.git
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    Start a new session after installation and confirm the skill is available. See the [Codex documentation](https://developers.openai.com/codex/skills) and [Claude Code documentation](https://code.claude.com/docs/en/skills). Other compatible c

README.md

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    Serenity.skill 把 [Serenity / @aleabitoreddit](https://x.com/aleabitoreddit) 公开内容中可观察到的投研路径做成 Agent Skill。它会从热点出发，拆产业链，找供应链瓶颈，筛候选公司和基金方向，再检查公告、财报、客户、产能和风险，最后整理成一份优先研究清单。
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    [Serenity / @aleabitoreddit](https://x.com/aleabitoreddit) 在公开内容中长期围绕 AI、半导体、光通信、机器人等科技主题做供应链研究。他的核心思路很清楚：大行情里真正有价值的机会，常常藏在系统扩张时最难绕开的关键环节。
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    git clone https://github.com/muxuuu/serenity-skill.git
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    安装后新开一个会话，确认能找到并调用 `serenity-skill`。目录规则见 [Codex 官方文档](https://developers.openai.com/codex/skills)和 [Claude Code 官方文档](https://code.claude.com/docs/en/skills)。其他兼容客户端使用同一份 Skill，安装位置和联网工具以各客户端文档为准。
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    Serenity.skill 是独立的公开方法论项目，灵感来自 [Serenity / @aleabitoreddit](https://x.com/aleabitoreddit) 公开内容中可观察到的研究范式。它帮助做研究、排序和推理，功能范围限于研究辅助。

examples/a-share-ai-semiconductor-demo.md

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    | 公司 | 营业收入 | 归母净利润 | 扣非归母净利润 | 经营现金流净额 | 来源与定位 | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | 中微公司 688012 | 66.91 | 28.25 | 11.23 | 6.85 | [8 月 20 日半年报摘要，第 3 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-20/1225482915.PDF#page=3) |
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    |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---| | 中微公司 688012 | 66.91 | 28.25 | 11.23 | 6.85 | [8 月 20 日半年报摘要，第 3 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-20/1225482915.PDF#page=3) | | 安集科技 688019 | 15.26 | 5.32 | 4.26 | 3.20 | [8 月 27 日半年报，第 9 页](h
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    | 中微公司 688012 | 66.91 | 28.25 | 11.23 | 6.85 | [8 月 20 日半年报摘要，第 3 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-20/1225482915.PDF#page=3) |
  • Network accessline 29
    | 安集科技 688019 | 15.26 | 5.32 | 4.26 | 3.20 | [8 月 27 日半年报，第 9 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-27/1225513853.PDF#page=9) |
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    | 澜起科技 688008 | 33.35 | 19.97 | 13.22 | 13.28 | [8 月 28 日港交所中报，印刷页 4–5](https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0828/2026082802124.pdf) |
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    | 华海清科 688120 | 26.43 | 5.63 | 5.16 | 0.73 | [8 月 22 日半年报摘要，第 3 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-22/1225491102.PDF#page=3) |
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    | 寒武纪 688256 | 59.96 | 23.11 | 21.66 | 3.11 | [8 月 8 日半年报，第 7 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-08/1225464969.PDF#page=7) |
  • Network accessline 38
    公司半年报的产品进展部分披露了 ICP 设备在客户产线量产、TSV 产品取得重复订单等进展，也列有仍在研发和验证的设备。这支持继续研究关键工艺设备的商业兑现，尚不能把所有新产品都算成已经形成收入。[半年报正文转载，第三节“主要产品的进展情况”](https://stock.stockstar.com/notice/SN2026081900035619.shtml)
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    归母利润同比增长 300.22%，扣非增长 108.36%。这两个增速的差别意味着，估值不能只照搬归母利润增长；设备本身的盈利和非经常性收益需要分别研究。[半年报摘要，第 3 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-20/1225482915.PDF#page=3)
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    公司半年报第 163 页披露，化学机械抛光液收入约 12.04 亿元，功能性湿电子化学品收入约 3.13 亿元。这是已经发生的产品收入，可以把研究从“参与某个概念”推进到实际业务规模。[半年报，第 163 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-27/1225513853.PDF#page=163)
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    反方问题同样清楚：收入同比增长 33.72%，扣非利润增长 19.35%。报告解释汇兑损失影响利润，不能直接把增速差归为产品竞争力下降；但也不能只凭耗材复购的逻辑，就认定利润会持续加速。[半年报，第 9–10 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-27/1225513853.PDF#page=9)
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    中报披露，四类新互连产品合计收入约 5.38 亿元，同比增长 80.7%；互连类芯片毛利率为 69.3%。DDR5 第五子代进入量产，第六子代在 6 月送样，二者不能写成相同商业进度。[港交所中报，印刷页 4–7](https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/0828/2026082802124.pdf)
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    归母利润也受投资收益、公允价值变动等因素影响。另据 7 月公告和 8 月中报，韩国办公室接受潜在竞争法事项调查；公司在披露时表示尚未被指控存在不当行为，经营正常，结果无法预测。[7 月 17 日公告](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-07-17/1225429161.PDF)、[中报，印刷页 59–60](https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2026/082
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    华海清科上半年收入同比增长 35.58%，归母利润增长 11.44%，经营现金流净额却下降 81.44%。收入和利润都在增长，简单说“增收不增利”并不准确；本次更需要解决的是现金转化问题。[半年报摘要，第 3 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-22/1225491102.PDF#page=3) 本轮未成功取得完整中报，尚不能判断原因是验收、采购、备货还是其他因素。补齐现金流解释后应重新排序。
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    寒武纪扣非利润同比增长 137.30%，但经营现金流净额同比下降 65.83%。强劲利润与扩张占用资金可以同时发生，现金流差别既不能被忽略，也不能直接当成业务恶化。[半年报，第 7 页及合并现金流量表](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-08/1225464969.PDF#page=7) 下一步核对存货、预付款、交付验收和现金的变化；若备货转化顺利且盈利持续，就有理由上调它。

examples/cpo-company-challenge.md

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    NVIDIA 2025 年 3 月 27 日技术博客在光纤、连接器及微光学分工中列出 TFC Communication，与 Browave、Corning、Senko、Coherent 同组；芯片制造封装、ELS 激光器、系统装配分别列在其他段落。这确认的是特定生态分工，不是全部 CPO 能力，也不是独家名单。[NVIDIA 原文，“The Innovation Story”](https://developer.nvidia.com/blog/a-new-era-in-d
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    销售客户有另一套口径。天孚 2025 年年报将 Fabrinet 列为第一大客户，销售额约 32.69 亿元，占全年收入 63.31%。这是整体销售关系，不能换写成 NVIDIA 直接贡献了同额 CPO 收入。[2026 年 4 月 8 日年报，第 27 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-08/1225082705.PDF#page=27)
  • Network accessline 30
    原始资料：[6 月 27 日活动、6 月 28 日披露的记录，第 2–3 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-28/1225393900.PDF#page=2)；[8 月 19 日记录，第 3–4 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-19/1225483926.PDF#page=3)；[8 月 19 日半年报，第 22–23 页](https://s
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    需要特别小心技术名词。年报披露 1.6T 光引擎批量生产，但这句话本身没有把该产品等同 CPO。高速率、硅光、光引擎分别描述不同属性，不能见到这些词就把收入全部计入 CPO。[2025 年年报，第 28 页研发项目](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-04-08/1225082705.PDF#page=28)
  • Network accessline 36
    2026 年上半年合并口径营业收入约 28.28 亿元、归母净利润 12.04 亿元、扣非归母净利润 11.86 亿元、经营现金流净额 10.01 亿元，分别属于这一半年度，不能直接当作全年。收入同比增长 15.15%，归母利润增长 33.92%。[半年报，第 10 页](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-19/1225480328.PDF#page=10)
  • Network accessline 38
    财务表现支持继续研究这门业务，但没有单列的 CPO 数据，不能由总利润增长反推 CPO 利润。公司 8 月交流还解释了原材料供应、产品结构、规模效应与效率对业绩的影响；期末存货约 9.29 亿元，较年初增长约 103%，公司称主要来自原材料备货。[8 月 19 日记录，问 1–4、问 11](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-19/1225483926.PDF#page=2)
  • Network accessline 44
    首先是供应竞争。公司自己预计会出现其他供应商，先发优势仍须通过产品迭代和交付维持。NVIDIA 同组合作方也不能直接当成已经完全可互换的供应商，需要进一步核对各家的产品规格与资格。[6 月活动记录，问 7](https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-06-28/1225393900.PDF#page=3)
  • Network accessline 46
    其次是技术路线。Broadcom 在 2026 年 3 月 11 日宣布用于高速可插拔模块的 400G/lane DSP，并在公告中说明处于早期客户送样阶段。它说明可插拔路线仍在演进，尚不能据此推断实际份额或全面替代 CPO。[Broadcom 原始公告，第 1 页，产品介绍与 Availability](https://investors.broadcom.com/node/64016/pdf)

references/market-source-playbook.md

  • Network accessline 5
    For A-share research, start with the company code, reporting year and document type on [CNINFO](https://www.cninfo.com.cn/) or the listing exchange. Verify the issuer, consolidated versus parent-only scope, publication date and reporting pe

references/public-profile-and-evaluation.md

  • Network accessline 5
    Serenity.skill is inspired by public supply-chain research associated with [Serenity / @aleabitoreddit](https://x.com/aleabitoreddit). It is an independent project and does not represent an endorsement by the account owner.
  • Network accessline 9
    [The AXT/InP supply-chain discussion posted by u/AleaBito](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1pyghud/the_entire_ai_buildout_google_nvda_msft_is/) traces an AI/photonics thesis upstream to materials and substrate suppliers. Th

references/research-sources.md

  • Network accessline 18
    - [Agent Skills specification](https://agentskills.io/specification)
  • Network accessline 19
    - [Skill creation best practices](https://agentskills.io/skill-creation/best-practices)
  • Network accessline 20
    - [Codex skills documentation](https://developers.openai.com/codex/skills)
  • Network accessline 21
    - [Claude Code skills documentation](https://code.claude.com/docs/en/skills)

scripts/validate_skill.py

  • Executable scriptline 1
    #!/usr/bin/env python3

How the signals fit together

Facts from a static read of the files at the pinned commit. They describe what the code does, not why.

Some files could not be read; the facts below still hold.

Signal confidence: 61 facts

and 11 more

Works with

Agent compatibility, from the files in this repository
AgentStatusEvidenceInstall to
Claude CodeCompatibleStandard SKILL.md SKILL.md.claude/skills/<skill-name>/
CodexCompatibleStandard SKILL.md SKILL.md.agents/skills/<skill-name>/
CursorCompatibleStandard SKILL.md SKILL.md.cursor/skills/<skill-name>/
Gemini CLICompatibleStandard SKILL.md SKILL.md.gemini/skills/<skill-name>/
GitHub CopilotCompatibleStandard SKILL.md SKILL.md.github/skills/<skill-name>/
OpenCodeCompatibleStandard SKILL.md SKILL.md.opencode/skills/<skill-name>/
  • Native The repository ships a manifest, folder or frontmatter field for this agent.
  • Compatible A standard SKILL.md that this agent can read.
  • Unknown No evidence either way.

Derived automatically from paths, manifests and frontmatter. Not tested on each agent.

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