Individual skill
cheat-predict
给最终稿写一份 immutable 盲预测日志。这是 cheat-on-content 整个校准循环的核心动作——预测段一旦写完不可改，由 hook 强制。**自动检测**：如目标文件已有 `## 预测` / `## 预测 v1` 段（被 cheat-shoot 调用走 v2 模式），改成 append `## 预测 v2` 而非覆盖。**打分通过 Task tool 委派给 `cheat-score-blind` sub-agent**（context-isolated channel B），主 Claude review 后落盘。触发词："启动预测"/"start prediction"/"给这稿子打分并预测"/"写预测日志"。
skills/cheat-predict/SKILL.md
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- Last checked
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# /cheat-predict — AI 主导的盲预测 + 用户 review
**这个工具是"作弊器"——AI 帮你做判断**。所以 cheat-predict 的核心是：
- **Claude 自己**读稿子 + 打 7 维分 + 给 bucket + 概率分布 + 反事实场景
- 用户 **review** 后回 "ok" 接受，或指出哪个维度 / 哪个判断不对
- 默认走快路径：用户直接 ok → 落盘
- 慢路径：用户挑刺某个维度 → Claude 改 → 再 review → 直至确认
不是用户从 7 维分到概率分布全部自己写，那 Claude 只剩"格式化器"——失去工具的核心价值。
**严格遵守 [shared-references/blind-prediction-protocol.md](../../shared-references/blind-prediction-protocol.md)**——见过任何后续数据就不能写预测，只能记 reconstructed。
完整组件清单见 [shared-references/prediction-anatomy.md](../../shared-references/prediction-anatomy.md)。
Confidence 派生表见 [shared-references/state-management.md](../../shared-references/state-management.md)。
