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hypotheses

Turns a research direction into testable hypotheses with predictions, competing explanations and the experiments that discriminate between them, including the design (controls, randomization, blocking), sample size or seed count, the pre-specified analysis, and the result that would falsify each hypothesis. Use when a question needs to become a study, before data is collected or runs are launched, or when an observation needs candidate explanations. For generating directions use brainstorming; for running the loop use autoresearch.

backend/cli/skills/core/hypotheses/SKILL.md

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# Hypotheses

A hypothesis is a statement the world could contradict, paired with the observation that
would contradict it. Everything else is a theme. The work here is turning a direction into
statements of that kind, and designing the smallest experiment that tells them apart.

## Rules

1. **Falsifiable, specific, mechanistic.** "Method A improves accuracy" is a theme. "Under
   label noise above 20%, A's margin over B grows with noise because A's loss saturates on
   mislabeled examples" is a hypothesis: direction, condition, mechanism, and a prediction
   that could fail.
2. **Always at least two.** The hypothesis and the best competing explanation for the same
   observation (confound, artifact, simpler mechanism). An experiment that cannot separate