Individual skill
cost-counterfactual
Multi-baseline counterfactual cost analysis. Compares actual session spend to hypothetical always-haiku / always-sonnet / always-opus routing baselines. Answers "is the routing earning its keep?" Negative savings flag over-escalation; positive savings quantify the router's win.
plugins/ruflo-cost-tracker/skills/cost-counterfactual/SKILL.md
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- Last checked
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Multi-baseline counterfactual cost analysis. Pairs with the existing observability surface:
- **`cost-budget-check`** — "have we crossed a threshold?" (reactive)
- **`cost-projection`** — "when will we cross a threshold?" (predictive)
- **`cost-counterfactual`** — "is the routing earning its keep?" (comparative) ← this one
## Algorithm
1. Read all `session-*` records from the `cost-tracking` namespace.
2. Apply `--since` window filter (default all-time).
3. Sum tokens across `byModel[*]` entries for each session.
4. For each requested baseline (default: all three):
- `counterfactualUsd = (input × tier.input + output × tier.output + cache_write × tier.cache_write + cache_read × tier.cache_read) / 1M`
5. Compute `savings = counterfactualUsd − actualUsd`.