Individual skill

experimentation-analytics

How to read experiment results without fooling yourself. Confidence intervals, p-values, multiple testing, sequential testing, CUPED, heterogeneous treatment effects, ratio metrics, network effects, dashboard reconciliation, and the interpretation failures that produce confidently wrong shipping decisions. Use this skill whenever the user is reading a finished experiment result panel and about to make a ship, kill, or iterate decision, or when an experiment number does not match the dashboard number. Triggers on read experiment results, result panel, ship or kill decision, p-value, confidence interval, statistical significance, multiple testing, peeking, sequential testing, CUPED, variance reduction, heterogeneous treatment effects, ratio metric, network effects, inconclusive test, experiment versus dashboard mismatch. Use `experiment-design` instead when the test has not run yet and the question is hypothesis, sample size, duration, or what to test.

dist/codex/.agents/skills/experimentation-analytics/SKILL.md

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# Experimentation Analytics

A data-team-mentor's playbook for interpreting experiment results without fooling yourself.

The result panel is the moment-of-truth for an experiment. The numbers on it determine whether you ship, kill, or iterate. They also expose every shortcut taken in the design phase: an underpowered test produces wide confidence intervals; a peeked test produces a too-narrow p-value; a ratio metric without delta-method correction produces overconfident lift estimates. Most ship-the-wrong-thing decisions trace back to misreading the result panel.

This skill is the discipline that prevents misreading. It assumes the experiment was designed well (see the `experiment-design` skill). It assumes the platform's results panel is technically correct (most modern platforms are; some older ones are not). It assumes you can read a number off a screen. The hard part is knowing what each number actually means and what it does not, and that is what is here.

When to use this skill: any time you are reading an experiment result panel and about to make a ship, kill, or iterate decision.

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## What this skill is for