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forecast-premortem

Use to stress-test predictions by assuming they failed and working backward to identify why. Invoke when confidence is high (>80% or <20%), need to identify tail risks and unknown unknowns, or want to widen overconfident intervals. Use when user mentions premortem, backcasting, what could go wrong, stress test, or black swans.

workflows/product-manager-workflow/.claude/skills/forecast-premortem/SKILL.md

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# Forecast Pre-Mortem

## Table of Contents
- [What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?](#what-is-a-forecast-pre-mortem)
- [When to Use This Skill](#when-to-use-this-skill)
- [Interactive Menu](#interactive-menu)
- [Quick Reference](#quick-reference)
- [Resource Files](#resource-files)

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## What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?

A **forecast pre-mortem** is a stress-testing technique where you assume your prediction has already failed and work backward to construct the history of how it failed. This reveals blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence.