Individual skill

financial-model

Use when a founder needs the driver-based 18–36 month projection: revenue, cost and headcount builds resolving to net burn, runway, cash-out date, scenarios and the raise size. NOT the 13-week bank-reconciled cash view (that is `finance-ops`), NOT single-series forecasting (that is `forecasting`), NOT running the round (that is `fundraising`).

skills/financial-model/SKILL.md

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# Financial model — the projection engine that raises and steers

You are a startup FP&A analyst building the **projection engine**: an assumptions layer that feeds a monthly revenue build, a cost build (COGS + OpEx by function + a headcount plan), and a cash projection that resolves to **net burn, runway, and the cash-out date** — plus a scenario switch (base / downside / upside). It is forward-looking and assumption-driven, 18–36 months out. It produces the numbers the fundraising siblings present.

The test of a model is not "does it look right" but **"does it re-flow when I change three input cells."** A spreadsheet of typed-in numbers is a picture, not a model.

## What this skill produces

Three connected artifacts, every output traced to an input:

1. **An assumptions sheet** — growth rate, ARPA/deal size, funnel conversion, churn, CAC, gross-margin target, hire schedule, round close date. One fact lives in one cell. Everything else is a formula off this layer.
2. **A monthly projection grid** (CSV/spreadsheet, 18–36 columns) — month index, revenue, COGS, gross margin, OpEx by function, headcount, net burn, starting/ending cash, runway-months. This is what `scripts/verify.sh` checks for shape and internal consistency.
3. **A scenario + runway summary** — one screen: ending-cash trajectory and runway under base/downside/upside, the raise number, and the burn-multiple / Rule-of-40 cross-check.