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    # Bayesian Methods

name: bayesian-methods
description: Bayesian inference for trading — prior selection, posterior updating, Bayesian portfolio optimization. Use for probabilistic trading analysis.

## When to Activate

- User wants to incorporate prior beliefs into parameter estimation
- Estimating Sharpe ratios or expected returns with uncertainty quantification
- Building Black-Litterman portfolios with investor views
- Working with small sample sizes where frequentist methods are unreliable
- Combining multiple data sources or expert opinions with market data
- Performing robust parameter estimation under uncertainty

## First Questions