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match-prediction

Predict sports match outcomes with statistical models: Elo, Poisson, expected goals, features, and proper evaluation. Use when building data-driven sports forecasts — not for gambling advice.

skills/match-prediction/SKILL.md

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# Match Prediction

## Overview

Statistical match prediction estimates outcome probabilities from data: team strength ratings, scoring models, and contextual features.

Standard approaches: Elo-style ratings, Poisson goal models, expected-goals (xG) models, and machine learning over engineered features.

Honest prediction means calibrated probabilities and rigorous evaluation — not picking winners, but quantifying uncertainty.

This skill is about modeling methodology, not betting. Predictions inform analysis; they don't overcome bookmaker margins reliably.

## When to use